Originally Posted by ultramarina
[quote]Note that it doesn't ask for the "probability" (technical term) it asks for the "likelihood" (colloquial term). Seems to me perfectly reasonable to interpret this as "... compared to the likelihood that he will pick a blue marble, and to the likelihood that he will pick a black marble". You have to interpret it as compared to something to make the answers make sense, and while the concepts "blue" and "black" appear in the question explicitly, the concept "not red" does not.

That's the problem with the question. It's open to interpretation. A math question in lower elementary school shouldn't be open to interpretation, and no student, regardless of age, should have to read the exam writer's mind in order to understand what's being asked.

It didn't say "likelihood of picking red versus blue OR black." In that case, red would be most likely. It just said the likelihood of picking red. To me, this is pretty clear: it means "red" or "not red," which is equally likely. But that's the problem. The other interpretation is equally clear to other people. So it's a bad question.

This a just one of many problems with multiple choice questions. If the question had been open-ended, the student could explain the answer and the teacher could see that there were two possible interpretations. Multiple choice questions don't allow for this process. IMO, they can be written more for the convenience of the person grading them than they are to measure what the student actually knows. Essay, short answer, and other similar types of questions ask students to synthesize information and allow them to explain answers. MC questions don't, and again, they don't reflect the kind of thinking required in the workplace.

Last edited by Val; 03/10/14 09:06 AM.