But here is why colleges love the SAT. It isn't that it measures cognitive ability, for which it is generally not that great an indicator in the late-high-school cohort.

It's because it predicts first year RETENTION so well.

Now, retention is a big issue because colleges do NOT want high attrition rates. They have a vested interest in graduating each and every student that they admit.

That's not the same thing as selecting for the "best" students. Not at all.

Because some of the "best" students come with baggage that prevents them from succeeding in collegiate settings. That baggage could be disability, could be socioeconomic, could be (and often is) about lack of family supports. Colleges don't really care what the reasons are-- they just want to be able to sort out which kids are going to be back for years 2-4 (5, 6).

The SAT is a pretty superb tool for doing just that. Those who make great scores may not be the "very brightest" but those scores do indicate that they are either possessed of many OTHER advantages that lead to college success (family supports, etc) or they are incredibly bright and incredibly determined.

From a college's perspective, those two groups are completely equivalent-- at the undergraduate level, I mean. Both are quite low-risk.


Schrödinger's cat walks into a bar. And doesn't.