My DS13 has been thinking and discussing about this for a few years now. At first it was Harvard. Then it evolved into Harvard or similar quality. These days a new possibility emerged in his head which is state flagship for undergrad. and Ivy for grad school. I tell him a couple of things: 1) as long as you are motivated and have goals and a plan to reach the goals, you will be fine anywhere (I honestly think the state flagship is his safety). and 2) there is unpredictability in college admissions. Be sure to be proud if you are a strong candidate, and don't mind it if they happen to not choose you.