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At this point, he just needs reassurance so he doesn't have to worry; he doesn't need the grim perspective of unvarnished truth. When he is older he will get a better sense on likelihood and probability, and we can have more elaborate discussions.

Exactly. There came a point when I realized that "Well, it's very, very unlikely, and furthermore, we live in a concrete house, so..." was not helping. DD needed to hear "That isn't going to happen to you" so she could release the thoughts and worries. We are now starting to get to the point where discussion of probabilities is more possible, but on some things she still needs absolute reassurance. I figure that if a tornado really does destroy our house, we have much worse problems than my promising it wouldn't happen.