Gifted Issues Discussion homepage Forums General Discussion Future and competition -- a chinese viewpoint

I know I have been in the minority in my obsession about future options for our children as the "new normal" takes over. I had lunch with my Chinese friend yesterday. Her youngest son tested with the SBV with and IQ of 160 -- he didn't get into Hunter, what we first have in common.

She goes back to Beijing in the summers to see her family and get her sons back into speaking Mandarin etc. She says there is this program that is on constantly on all the channels, sort of America's got talent. But it is all children and they compete in their age range and she says it makes her children look so mediocre she is afraid of what kind of competitive landscape it will be for her sons as they apply for colleges -- because they will be applying here but against all those Chinese students coming from China.

I just thought it interesting. I know that often that I am in the minority in worrying about options for DD5 when she gets older and I find the majority here think that if they are smart, they will find a way. But I think the current economic climate will show us an example. There are a lot of unemployed really smart people trying to find a way.

Ren

The game show is highly ritualized and contestants prepare for it. A very small group of highly motivated contestants compete. If you were to take an untutored chess player to a tournament, they would feel the same way.

If you spend some time on the big future site, you will see that the majority of inventions that will change the world come from the US. If you did more deeply into the background of the inventors you will see they pursued their ideas for their own sake.

http://nextbigfuture.com/

China will need one or two more generations to undo the cultural aversion to the study of ideas for their own sake. It is deeply ingrained into the culture from thousands of years of despotism. The history of ideas in the West as compared to China is an interesting field of study. Logic was never invented by the Chinese and it has crippled the intellctual disciplines as a result. If you look at all that rests on Logic in the West, there is a huge gap.

A lot of manufacturing is coming back to the US from China. This is just one story.

http://www.plasticstoday.com/articles/farouk-systems-inc-brings-manufacturing-us

"As it turns out, Farouk Systems� move to the U.S. isn�t an isolated case. Many companies are bringing manufacturing back to North America, primarily because the bulk of their customer base in here. Cost increases in materials and transportation, counterfeiting problems, and logistics problems in the supply chain have caused many manufacturers to relocate production either to the U.S., Canada, or Mexico.

A 2009 study by Archstone Consulting LLC, cites 10 �macro forces� that are currently undermining the offshoring trend, with nearly 90% of manufacturers reporting that they are considering or have already begun rebalancing their manufacturing and supply strategy due to cost increases in offshoring: 40% have reported an increase in aggregate cost of 25% or more; 90% expect further increases of 10% or more, said Archstone�s study."


I work with JVs' principals that do or have done business with PRC firms and the quality of the work has declined over time and they have switched to a new vendors not based in the PRC, some of which are here. I have seen business stolen by PRC firms who reverse engineered designs, but when the systems failed while in the field, the end users switched back to US products.

The CPC thinks it can steal the economic success of the West without all the other things that come with it. This is creating a huge level of stress in both the US and the PRC as the US uses China as a piggy bank to finance consumption and China sees it as a way to build an economy. It is very unhealthy and cannot continue for much longer.

Wow! I have never before heard of a child getting a 160 on the SB V. That's a fantastic score. I can't imagine him not getting in due to his IQ- ti couldn't be any higher on that scale! It must have been something else that caused him to be rejected.

Hi Austin,

You must be a little young. In the middle 80s, I was heading up the automobile group for a major investment bank. There was a time that everything you wrote about could have been said about the Japanese. When I was a kid, if it was Made in Japan it was junk. Amazing what was done in two decades. And what was even more remarkable was what Korea did in one decade with quality.

You sited some examples and I have heard them too but they are isolated, otherwise the trade deficit wouldn't be so f---ing big. The math tells all and little anecdotes don't add up to anything on world trade. The US imports a great deal from China and it grows. And when they wanted planes from Boeing, which is our largest exporter, they made them build them there. And Boeing agreed.

So you can pretend that your universe is real but I will bet you that your reality will burst within two years.

Ren

You mean all the moaning about Japan, Inc? Yeah, I recall the scaremongering. I seem to recall Al Gore heading that up. Seems like he moved on to another Big Scare that is flopping, too.

Where is Japan, today, after the Lost Decade? Why would a nation set its interest rates at 0% for ten years if it was so successful?

And what about the Hikikomori - many of whom are PG and AS? Japan has kicked its most unique people to the curb. Is that smart? This is a huge and lost opportunity for Japan (and the world) that can never be recovered.

Furthermore, the Japanese auto manufacturers understood the trajectory of their costs and they in-shored the assembly and much of the parts processes to the US. Why would it not be smart for US firms to do the same thing?

The only advantage China has is labor costs and the fact that they way underestimate future costs. This, too, will change, as it did for Japan and as it has for Korea and in Taiwan.

I never said the Chinese stuff was junk. They make some great stuff. But intellectual theft is rampant. They also undercut price and then later realize they made a mistake as they have to provide support and maintenance. They either then raise the price to cover costs or cut corners. If they do the latter, then staff leave and the product suffers.

The US and others talked China into something they will come to regret - being the sweatshop of the world. They have huge hidden lifecyle costs that are coming due and will come due as time goes along. And as a result the cost advantage will dwindle while the other cost drivers such as flexibility, transportation, coordination - stay fixed or become more important. And emerging nations in Africa will have lower costs in terms of labor and distance to market, andmore Western values, so plants can be moved or built anew.

I'm not impressed. They should have driven a harder bargain and grew more slowly.

Let's see what happens to China's emerging asset and commodity bubble in the next six months. And the soon to be worthless US dollars they have stockpiled.

I think the Chinese have been snookered.

You make some good points. The advantage of China, not to say they won't burst, is that they are managed like some big corporate entity. And those useless US dollars --- doesn't that mean serious inflation here?

When you look at medical and dental schools here, they are filled with students from India and will get more and more China.

That is my argument. China is making huge investments in their young. Training them in languages, math, science. Yes, Mao killed off the intelligensia and destroyed the universities and they have to rebuild. But they are doing that.

My point was about all these kids, kids that are very hungry to work hard and if the combined population of India and China are 10X the population here and you have gifted kids everywhere, and they come here for college, the options get smaller and smaller for kids here.

The story of Japan and China are very different. As the story of India and China. India isn't really investing in infrastructure. China is learning quickly. And they have bought up a lot of Congo. So although they may have useless US dollar denominated bonds, they own a lot of commodities to hedge.

Anyway, DD5 is taking Mandarin now. She likes the idea that China may be the world power when she grows up and she needs to learn so she can talk to them. And she loves the class.

On another topic. I am finding the horizontal diversification working. After finding out that the Special Music School is actually delayed on the curriculum and math is a year behing, but by 5th grade, the kids can pass the 8th grade regents, it makes me rethink the gifted curriculum idea.

Ren

Dottie-

Is it easier to score very high on that version of the test- similar to the WPPSI? 160 is still the ceiling, right? I couldn't find that detail on the link you posted.

I�m going to side step the whole China/Japan discussion (since I�m rather ignorant there! ) and just say that I�ve seen first hand how one ivy-league institute decides which students are accepted. First they sort the applications into a few categories: Americans, Chinese, the rest of the world (their might have beens some sub-categories there but they were pretty much lumped together). Then they evaluate them against the others in their indivdual category. So, yes, if her sons were applyin from China it would make is harder due to high test scores there.

I guess, I�d suggest trying to find activities for her sons that are atypical of Chinese students. Maybe some internships? Study abroad? Emphasize native English speaking skills, etc...

It is not clear to me whether the Chinese family in the original post are US citizen or green card holders. If they are, they should not worry much about the competition from foreign students from China or elsewhere. Foreign students are put into separate category.

Even the family came here on work or student visa, their kids still have better chances to get into top schools than those applying from outside. The students from China still have the language barrier to overcome. It is getting better now, but most of them can barely speak or write (although the reading and analyzing grammar are much better). I was one of them 20 years ago as a graduate student. It was hard. I won't be able to survive in under-graduate where reading and writing are much more important.

First, the parents of this family are visa holders. Do not not the status of the children.

Secondly, DH is very involved with fundraiising with Harvard and we discuss how it is going with competition for spaces.

Chinese is chinese, for admissions. It is very hard to get in if you are Chinese because there are so many with perfect scores, from here, from there. You can get most easily if you are a Pacific Islander.

The current education situation, that I understand, in China is that they are heavily learning languages and they pride themselves that when the government place someone in Rio, they speak perfect Portugese, if placed in Paris, perfect French. I read an article about this. I read that English was pushed even at the preschool level so they are raised bilingual, at least bilingual.