How can I tell what normal expectations are for a 2 1/2 year old?
I think there is no real 'normal' for a 2 1/2 year old...some are super far from potty-training, some are completely done, and some are in the midst. I think that's awesome if your DD is able to get up and go to the potty in the middle of the night. When my DS started going pull-up free, we would wake him up before we went to sleep at night (around 11pm)and just gently walk him to the potty. He was a deep sleeper, so we knew he wouldn't wake up on his own.
My DS was super, super, super easy to PT...we didn't try until he was 2y4m...but he trained in a weekend and never wet at naptime or nightime. We only used about a half-bag of pull-ups for nighttime because he just did so well. So I knew my expectations were really messed up about PTing in the first place.
I started PTing my DD2 last week. She caught on pretty quickly if WE tell her when it's time to go...but she's not nearly as easy when we take a more hands off approach. Generally, I'm against pull-ups unless we are out and about, but I've gotten a bit lazy lately and left a pull-up on her when we got home from running and SURE enough - she's wet in two the past two days.
So today we're back to bottoms in the buff and try to get back on track. She usually wakes up dry (was noticing this before we even started PTing), but if she doesn't get up and go quickly after waking, she'll wet in her pull-up.
I really do wish there was a magic PT wand out there.