I hope nobody minds my revivifying this thread. I read an amazing claim recently that's related to the topic here. The claim was that of the 4-year-olds who score 130 or above on an IQ test, only 25% would do so again at age 17. Reference
here.Does that seem plausible?
BB
I would note that this statistic has been obtained through regression analysis rather than through any actual studies of 4 and 17 year olds.
But, of course, test scores may change for a number of reasons: First, testing at 4 is so difficult. I am not at all confident that my 4 year old is outgoing enough to perform well on an IQ test at this time, and she is far more outgoing than some of her peers. Because so many preschoolers will refuse to cooperate for one reason or another, outgoing, obedient kids will naturally get a boost in their scores. That means that they appear to be smarter than the kids who don't cooperate, but in just a few years that difference won't matter and their scores will drop.
Second, when you're looking at kids testing at or above 130, you have to keep in mind that most of those kids will test at or barely above 130. How shocking is it that a kid with a 130 score would later score a 129? Not shocking in the least. Likewise kids who score a 129 may easily score a 130 on a later test, and the difference isn't at all significant.
Third, IQ testing compares the cognitive development of a child to his or her peers. It assumes that our cognitive development is constant and steady. But of course there are kids who, for whatever reason, develop in different ways. Some kids may have sudden leaps in development, and others may slow over time.
None of that means that kids aren't gifted at 4, or don't stay gifted if they are.
