I believe the end of year (spring) projections are made in the fall. This is their target, hopefully, although many gifted kids who get no exposure to new material during a year may stay very flat. My first grader blew by his spring projection by 10 points just going from fall to winter. I have made the effort to expose him to new material since public school and even our 30 minute once a week GT course provides no new input. Can't wait to see his spring scores!