That's just it, though-- even people who KNOW several people who have won them also know five or six times that many people who have not, but deserved to just as much as those that have.
I think that is what Val and I are both suggesting-- that this is like taking a stunningly beautiful child actress, and predicting that she will win a best-actress academy award and have a Vogue cover when she's an adult. Maybe. And maybe not-- because it's not entirely about raw characteristics and ability. A lot is being in the right place at the right time, too.
Many people who are quite outstanding do NOT ever win rare accolades, too. That does not mean that they contribute less, or that their contributions are less important or worthy.
So while it is definitely fair to say that child prodigies like this are "going great places" and to celebrate their passions (particularly in light of any particular difficulties that they may overcome along the way), it's quite another to impose a particular, nearly unattainable standard of "success" which is only partly about skill and ability.
Put it this way-- what would you think if I suggested that my child "will be Chief Justice someday"?
Same kind of thinking, that. Now, it wouldn't SURPRISE me if that were true. Not one bit. Just as I'm sure that it would surprise none of us if this young man WERE to win a Nobel prize.
But it's not the same thing as making it an expectation.
