Unless things have changed from the mid-1990's, it's never been that hard to get into an Ivy if you are in the 140ish+ I.Q. range (and used this ability in high school).
As someone admitted to an Ivy, and who went through the process, here is my take.
Most kids who have the skills and life story to get in do not apply. That is changing and this is part of the reason why applications have risen at top universities.
Another reason applications have risen is that the influx of Asians and their desire for social acceptance is also fueling the number of applicants.
Another reason is that the new SAT is much easier than the old one.
And a lot of kids are using the SAT prep programs and also attending "chinese school." Most of the top kids at the top public schools in DFW do this. This fuels the high SAT scores and high GPAs.
When I got accepted, I was the first in five years from my HS. The class before me had a number of exceptional grads, but only one applied to an out of region school and she went to Stanford. In my class, my classmates applied to public universities and later did their grad schooling locally as well. Looking at the grad list today from the same school, 1-4 a year go to ivies, MIT, or Caltech. A change.
The exceptional kid 25 years ago had AP classes, SAT > 1500, and some outside activities. Today, this is the norm. Kids are so much smarter and parents so much more prepared that the normal AP stuff is not a separator at all.
As far as life stories go, most kids will have the same one. The exceptional applicant today will have a history of independent pursuits or significant real world achievements. Something that the committee does not see on most apps.
For instance, six years in the US Army Rangers with three combat tours. Or an established byline in the local newspaper. Or a dozen published papers in a peer reviewed journal. Or 30 college credits taking
senior level courses at the local university. Or manager in some business.
