Also, with securities markets best modelled as a random walk plus drift, I don't know that stock portfolio performance is really indicative of anything at all to do with intelligence. It's a random variable, per JonLaw's results.
The lesson I learned was "don't short the market during a major QE session."
So, it was pretty non-random.
![[Linked Image from hussmanfunds.com]](http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415e.jpg)
An important lesson. But, then, QE was an unprecedented response to a black swan event.
They weren't reacting to a "black swan" event.
In fact, the collapse of the credit/housing bubble was as far from a "black swan" event as you can get.
When you stuff a financial system chock full of credit that has no business existing in the first place, what you get is what happened.
I mean the dot-com bust just happened. It wasn't like everyone hadn't just lived through a boom and bust.
It was a standard-issue mania, panic, and crash. Classic "white swan".
