Originally Posted by JonLaw
Originally Posted by aquinas
Also, with securities markets best modelled as a random walk plus drift, I don't know that stock portfolio performance is really indicative of anything at all to do with intelligence. It's a random variable, per JonLaw's results.

The lesson I learned was "don't short the market during a major QE session."

So, it was pretty non-random.

[Linked Image from hussmanfunds.com]

An important lesson. But, then, QE was an unprecedented response to a black swan event.

What is to give light must endure burning.