But in October 2009, the most-advanced 14yos were only in 11th grade - and there were 12,000 19,000 of them.
Alternatively, if those 14yo's (assuming for a moment that this value is reasonably accurate) were taking AP coursework... then second year
post-secondary makes a fair degree of sense the following fall (since they may well have been considered non-freshman via credit accumulation).
Yes, if you look at that most-advanced-14yo cohort in 2009, those
12,000 19,000 [sorry - too many Excel files, and I picked up the number from the wrong one] 11th graders producing 9,000 15-year-old college freshmen in 2010 is not totally unreasonable - certainly not by the time you figure that the measurement error due to small sample size is likely half as big as the estimated population.
