Gifted Issues Discussion homepage Forums GT Research Predicting AP scores from PSAT scores

A few posters have complained that their children's high schools do not allow students to take AP classes before 11th grade, even if they are ready. A College Board report "The relationship between PSAT/NMSQT scores and AP examination grades: A follow-up study" http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/pdf/06898CBR06-1.pdf finds that PSAT scores are highly correlated (typically about 0.5-0.6) with AP exam scores. Table 9 shows that 94.0% of students with math PSAT score of 71 to 75 get at least a 3 on AP Calculus AB, and 96.4% of students scoring 76 to 80 on the PSAT-M do so. Table 13 shows how composite math+verbal+writing PSAT scores predict scores on AP exams in the social sciences. Table 3 shows that 10th and 11th graders do about the same on AP tests, controlling for PSAT score.

SAT scores are equivalent to PSAT scores multiplied by 10. Students in 10th grade and earlier should be allowed in AP classes if they have high PSAT or SAT scores, and parents can reference this study to advocate for this.

Remind me, this report shows PSAT scores for both sophomores and juniors, do kids normally take the PSAT in 10th or 11th grade? It's been so long that I can't recall. Dd13 will be taking AP human geography in 10th next fall.

Yes. The 11th grade scores are the one used for National Merit scholarships. Quoting the Wikipedia:

"The Preliminary SAT/National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT) is a standardized test administered by the College Board and National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) in the United States. This test is offered by the College Board. Approximately 3.5 million students take the PSAT/NMSQT each year.[1] In 2008, 1.59 million high school sophomores and 1.52 million high school juniors took the PSAT.[2] Some freshmen, eighth, and seventh graders also take the test. The scores from the PSAT/NMSQT are used (with the permission of the student) to determine eligibility and qualification for the National Merit Scholarship Program."

Note that the study looked at kids who took the PSAT in 10th and one or more AP tests in 11th, and kids who took the PSAT in 11th and one or more AP tests in 12th. It did not look at kids who took both the PSAT and an AP in 10th. So while I agree completely with your conclusions, they're somewhat outside the official scope of the study.

(I'd phrase it as "this study supports the idea that it's PSAT scores, rather than grade placement, that's the best predictor of AP success," but not as "this study says 10th graders with high PSAT scores do well on AP tests taken prior to 11th grade.")

This could also be a selection bias. Not that many kids take the PSAT in 10th grade- those who do are likely going to apply to very competitive colleges. These are kids who want to get experience taking the PSAT a year early. These are also kids who would probably do well on the AP exams. It could also be that many kids who take the PSAT in 10th grade come from above-average income families, and those may be kids who will take alot of AP classes and exams anyway.
In our local, highly competitive public school, alot of kids start taking the PSAT in 9th grade.

Yes, but while you can self-select for "takes the PSAT early," you can't really self-select for "gets a high score on the PSAT." And the conclusion we're drawing isn't, "people who take the PSAT in 10th score as well on the 11th grade AP test as people who take the PSAT in 11th do on the 12th grade AP test." It's "people who score well on the PSAT will likely score well on an AP test, regardless of whether they take those tests in 10/11 or 11/12."

After reading (rather than skimming) the study, I see that you are correct -- thanks. The College Board has created an "AP Potential" tool based on the study where the probability of achieving an AP score >= 3 or >= 4 is shown as a function of PSAT score (either a sub-score or a composite, based on the AP exam score to be predicted). The stats for Calculus AB can be retrieved at http://www.collegeboard.com/counselors/app/expectancy.html?calcab .

The College Board also has a report "AP Score Distributions for Specific Student score-Level Groups 2011" http://professionals.collegeboard.com/profdownload/AP-Score-Dist-by-Grade-Level-2011.pdf showing average AP score by
grade level. Here are some of the numbers:

grade #scores avg_score %passing
<9 4283 2.91 59.72
9 74762 2.53 47.37
10 380206 2.81 56.75
11 1263768 2.94 60.06
12 1621118 2.84 57.66
>12 4159 3.43 72.81

There were only 4283 exams taken by students in grades before 9th, but their average score of 2.91 is about the same as the 2.94 of high school juniors. All students ought to take AP exams in 8th grade, since research shows that such students do as well as 11th and 12th graders . But seriously, the numbers do show that the self-selected group of students who take AP exams before 9th grade do almost as well as 11th and 12th graders.

Unfortunately for gifted students, the College Board discourages taking AP classes before 9th grade, even writing "The AP label cannot be affixed to courses and transcripts prior to 9th grade." What if a school district allowed a gifted 8th grader to take AP calculus alongside 12-graders?

http://apcentral.collegeboard.com/apc/public/repository/Appropriate-Grade-Levels-for-AP-Courses.pdf
Policy: Appropriate Grade Levels for AP Courses
The AP Program recognizes the autonomy of secondary schools and districts in setting AP course participation policies that best meet their students’ unique needs and learning goals. At the same time, AP courses are specifically designed to provide challenging, college-level coursework for willing and academically prepared high school students. Student performance on AP Exams illustrate that in many cases AP courses are best positioned as part of a student’s 11th and 12th grade academic experience. Some subject areas, however, such as World History and European History, can be successfully offered to academically prepared 10th grade students.
Educators should be mindful of the following when considering offering AP to younger students. AP courses are rarely offered in 9th grade, and exam results show that, for the most part, 9th grade students are not sufficiently prepared to participate in a college-level course. Therefore, the College Board believes these students would be better served by coursework focusing on the academic building blocks necessary for later, successful enrollment in college-level courses. Many college admissions officers support this position, feeling that students should not be rushed into AP coursework, but should instead develop the necessary skills and conceptual understandings in foundational courses prior to enrolling in AP. AP coursework completed in 9th grade is not often deemed credible by the higher education community. The AP designation may only be applied to authorized courses offered at or above the 9th grade level which have received authorization through the annual AP Course Audit process. The AP label cannot be affixed to courses and transcripts prior to 9th grade. There is one exception to this policy: AP world language courses. These courses focus on linguistic proficiency and cultural competency, so in rare situations these courses can be successfully offered earlier than 9th grade among students who can already speak, read, and write the language with fluency. In summary, the AP Course Audit will only renew or authorize courses that are offered exclusively in grades 9-12, with the exception of AP world language programs.
The College Board recognizes that there are some occasions in which students may be prepared to take an AP Exam prior to 9th grade. Because students are not required to take an AP course before taking the AP Exam, schools may choose to administer AP Exams to students of any grade level, so long as the restriction against use of the AP label on courses and transcripts prior to 9th grade is observed.
In deciding when to offer college-level coursework to any student, educators should carefully review the curricular and resource requirements for each AP course, and consider whether a student has received the appropriate academic preparation. AP courses require students to apply advanced critical thinking and analytical skills that are typical of comparable college-level courses. This guiding AP enrollment policy holds true for all AP courses and exams, regardless of the grade level in which a school or district decides to offer AP coursework.

The Flynn Effect will make fools of us all.

I agree with what you are saying. I think that kids who are prepared to take AP exams in 9th grade probably are more likely to be a select group of students who will excel in 9th, 10th, etc. grades. They will excel on the PSAT. Why not allow them to take those AP tests and exams early?
On the other hand, perhaps many school districts do not have the funding to provide open access to every AP class for every student, regardless of their grade. Maybe they partly restrict AP classes to mainly 11th and 12th graders due to limited funding.
Not that this is an excuse but simply an explanation.
I do plan to have my kids start taking the PSAT in 9th grade simply to get that experience. I think I will have them take the SCAT test yearly until 7th grade (even though my older one qualified on both parts; the younger one is too young) and then the SAT simply to get more experience taking standardized tests on a computer. As an adult, I still have to do that to recertify my 3 Board exams every 10 years as a doctor, so getting good at taking computerized tests is a valuable skill.

What is the cost to the district? Where I live, the parents pay the entire cost of the AP exams so I'm not sure if there is any additional cost for the district unless they are subsidizing the cost for kids on free or reduced lunch.