aquinas, you sound like me!
In this specific case however, the problem is that you don't seem to have enough hard data to make an informed choice. So I'd identify information I needed and really think about whether those facts really are unobtainable.
Another way to think about the problem space is with a risk mitigation approach:
What are the risks to staying where you are?
What are the risks to leaving where you are?
What are the risks to taking option 2?
What are the risks to taking option 3?
Then I'd estimate the severity and probability of each of the risks (scale of 1-5 or whatever), multiply to create a risk factor, and add up the relevant risks to each option.
And finally, because I'm only a project manager most of the time, I'd try to interview / tour the relevant options and let my instincts guide me as well.
