The way I figure it is that either way, there's a lot of uncertainty -- is this the career I really want, is this the school I really want, who will hire me, etc. Either way you don't know what will happen after college, or whether things will change by then. Add that to the fact that, as HK mentioned, the HYPS admissions race is, in many people's opinions, at least somewhat morally...questionable.
Yes, look at your options. Don't choose just off of finances, or prestige, or anything else for that matter. A college with a full ride might be not as good of a choice as a college requiring a small (like 10K small, or whatever) loan.
But in my opinion, I'd rather take a free or 10-15K chance than a 200K chance. That's what college choice, college admissions IS: it's a chance. You might choose the "wrong" school. However, it's hard (I hope?) to choose a college that will leave you with no job prospects and no education. If I'm uncertain, the free school sure seems like the safer bet to me.
