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Intelligence
Volume 39, Issue 6, November-December 2011, Pages 443-455

The Flynn effect puzzle: A 30-year examination from the right tail of the ability distribution provides some missing pieces
Jonathan Wai and Martha Putallaz

Abstract
The Flynn effect is the rise in IQ scores across the last eighty or more years documented in the general distribution of both industrialized and developing nations primarily on tests that require problem solving and non-verbal reasoning. However, whether the effect extends to the right tail (i.e., the top 5% of ability) remains unknown. The present study uses roughly 1.7 million scores of 7th-grade students on the SAT and ACT as well as scores of 5th- and 6th-grade students on the EXPLORE from 1981 to 2010 to investigate whether the effect operates in the right tail. The effect was found in the top 5% at a rate similar to the general distribution, providing evidence for the first time that the entire curve is likely increasing at a constant rate. The effect was also found for females as well as males, appears to still be continuing, is primarily concentrated on the mathematics subtests of the SAT, ACT, and EXPLORE, and operates similarly for both 5th and 6th as well as 7th graders in the right tail. These findings help clarify the nature of the effect and may suggest ways that potential causes can now be more meaningfully offered and evaluated.

Highlights
► We examined whether the Flynn effect extends to the top 5% of ability. ► The effect was found in the top 5% at a rate similar to the general distribution. ► This shows for the first time that the entire curve is likely increasing. ► The effect was concentrated on the mathematics subtests. ► The effect was the same for both sexes and appears to continuing.

Keywords: Flynn effect; Environmental factors; Sex differences; Historical examination; Gifted

The paper is at http://www.tip.duke.edu/sites/default/files/The%20Flynn%20Effect%20Puzzle.pdf

Interesting, and as expected. Thank you.

This is very interesting, and I'd love to see more discussion.

Just before you posted this I was contemplating whether or not the rise in measured IQ over time has been matched with a rise in measured IQ variance over time. I didn't exactly get my answer, but this was interesting for other reasons.

It would be nice to have measurements of the effect for different populations around the world. If it's higher in country X than country Y, then we can look at what's different about those countries. We can see if the effect correlates with technological proliferation, early-childhood education, etc, and we can measure and compare the strength of those correlations.

I am hoping to attend a lecture on Friday, with a panel that includes Howard Gardner. Maybe a couple of questions will touch on this area.

WHY DO THE FINNS FINISH FIRST?
Friday, January 13, 2012 7:30 PM
Free Event � Registration Required

The Finnish school system is reckoned by education experts to be the best in the world and Finland is regularly ranked one of the top three of the world�s most competitive countries. Has Finland found the key to educating students for a successful and productive society? Pasi Sahlberg, Director General of the Centre for International Mobility and Cooperation in Helsinki, and global expert in educational reform, will share insights and details about Finland�s approach as outlined in his book Finnish Lessons: What Can the World Learn About Educational Change in Finland (Teachers College Press, to be released 2011), facilitated by questions from Howard Gardner, John H. and Elisabeth A. Hobbs Professor of Cognition and Education at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, MacArthur Prize awardee and selected by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines as one of the 100 most influential public intellectuals in the world.

Dr. Sahlberg has worked as teacher, teacher-educator, and policy advisor; served the World Bank and the European Commission as education specialist; and has a PhD from the University of Jyv�skyl�.

Hmmm... but Finland also has a very high suicide rate, the 14th highest (2008 data). What's the link?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate

The simplest reason the Finns do so well is that their teachers are among the best and brightest in their country and care about their jobs. A supporting reason is the long winters which are conducive to studying. And then there is the Finnish national culture which emphasizes Sisu, or grit.

The suicide rate is high, but Finns love to drink and the long winters can really drag on you as well.

That's a bit harsh Wren! As is the Australian way, I feel a patriotic compulsion to defend our place in the world of smarts

Australia is widely regarded as punching above its weight intellectually and academically - for example we've had four Nobel laureates in the past 7 years, in medicine and science. Pretty good for a country with a population that is yet to hit 23 million. And hey, while we're at it, we're running one of the few functioning economies in the developed world!

However you're unlikely to see it on show when you're here. Australian's are very, very wary of anyone who seems too smart - the legacy of our history is that we're wary of anything inherited and not earned(we are continually rated as among the hardest working nations in the world, despite our image as laid back). According to Wikipedia we are probably the longest users of the term Tall Poppy Syndrome in the modern world, and ultimately because we refuse to acknowledge our best and brightest (off the cricket field and out of the swimming pool at least) we loose a lot of our best people overseas. It's also one of the things that contributes to the difficulties in advocating for gifted kids here - we don't have a culture of wanting to be the best, instead we have a culture of 'the fair go' that is so pervasive that it is ingrained in almost every aspect of our culture (though it does ensure a high standard of education regardless of status). Our commitment to egalitarianism has such a strong influence on our education policies that Miraca Gross devotes a section to it in on of her chapters in Exceptionally Gifted Children.

So reeallly we're just like an under the radar gifted kid... right?

Now ... the ability of Australians (this one at least) to stay on topic can, however, rightly be questioned!

Here is how the score is made.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index


I note that the workers paradise of Cuba is ranked right up there with the Anzac nations and Finland. While Japan is ranked far below the US. This makes me doubt the rankings listed by the UN.

Just a reminder to please avoid stereotyping and negatively characterizing nationalities. Thank you!

To be fair, Cuba does have an amazing literacy rate - that's not some sort of fantasy. Regardless of how crazy most of us probably find their leader to be, and what sort of mess their country might be in economically, they do work very very hard on educating their citizens (at least in the basics) and it's expected that children learning to read in school will go home and teach any elder family members who do not possess that knowledge.

(I am not suggesting the UN is any sort of fair marker of literacy rates, btw.)