NMSF is the top ~16K-- which is more like the top 99.7th percentile, and that is where individual state scoring norms come into play-- national merit commendation is the top 50K (99th percentile) nationwide.
In low-scoring states, the cut-line for NMSF is much lower, and may be well below the 99th percentile nationally. Our state is a bit over the median there, so a cut line of about 211-218, depending on the year. Her score is at the low end of that range. We expect that DD will miss the cut-line for semi-finalist by about a single wrong answer, basically-- she's that close.
This is her first year into the most recent skip, too-- so she didn't get a practice run at the PSAT since she skipped 10th grade. This was her first attempt at a standardized test in that kind of format.
