http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-talented-1-in-10000.html

The talented 1 in 10,000
by Steve Hsu

David Lubinski sent me a copy of his latest paper from a longitudinal study of individuals who scored at the 1 in 10k level (normalized by age) on SAT-M or SAT-V before 13. This population is similar to the one whose DNA we are using in our intelligence GWAS.

How can a brief test administered to a 12 year old be so good at picking out individuals who are likely to be exceptionally successful at age 38? If I hadn't been repeatedly told otherwise by "experts" I might conclude it had some validity ;-)

...

The authors note that about 2% of the US general population earn doctoral degrees (JD, MD, PhD), whereas about 22% of gifted students who test at the top 1% level do so, and 44% percent of this population (in the 1 in 10k population there were many times more PhDs than MDs and JDs).

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The paper being discussed is

http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/03/25/0956797612457784
Who Rises to the Top?: Early Indicators
by Harrison J. Kell, David Lubinski, and Camilla P. Benbow
Psychological Science
March 2013, 24 (3)