As far as I know, "invited to apply" only applies to those selected for the US teams for the International Math Olympiad and the International Physics Olympiad, and to a lesser extent the International Chemistry Olympiad. That's up to 18 people per year, or 1.5% of the class.
Over the past several years, at least for the IMO, MIT has gotten every one of those that it wanted (there were two rejects I think, supposedly due to grades or recommendations).
Outside of these "invited to apply" group, there are certainly some high probability groups (70% according to my observations). PRIMES as mentioned above was one, but also those who did exceptionally well in the Regeneron science fairs, and those who came close to getting selected for the international competitions. For example the top 30+ students who are being considered for the IMO attend a program called MOP, and putting MOP on the application looks pretty good.
And of course, there is considerable overlap between these awards. The people winning international competitions have often won science competitions as well, further improving their prospects.
Last edited by mithawk; 03/04/23 03:49 PM.
