Learned obsolescence vs. an unknown that sends all the right signals?
I find prepared decisions much less stressful... Choose a specific outcome you want from the current school, and a specific deadline for it. If it doesn't happen by then, switch schools. It isn't something you would tell the current school. It is just a simple fair pseudo-objective decision mechanic, that takes you a step away from the angst of the decision.
Example:
If DD isn't consistently receive 4th grade math work by Dec. 15th, we'll apply to the other school.
