Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years

Posted by: indigo

Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 01/11/19 07:30 PM

A.I. Expert Says Automation Could Replace 40% of Jobs in 15 Years
by Don Reisinger
Fortune
January 10, 2019

Originally Posted By: article
An artificial intelligence expert and venture capitalist predicts automation will cause major changes in the workforce.

Speaking to CBS News’ Scott Pelley in an interview for 60 Minutes on Sunday, Kai Fu Lee said that he believes 40% of the world’s jobs will be replaced by robots capable of automating tasks.


Considering that a 40% job loss to technology may result in rampant unemployment among the workforce, families may want to help their students develop a firm understanding of:
- financial literacy (personal finance and budgeting),
- lifestyle choices (needs vs wants),
- prognosticating when choosing potential future careers
..(US Occupational Outlook Handbook here: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/).
Posted by: puffin

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 01/12/19 05:17 PM

I am still waiting for that paperless office that was supposed to be here 20 years ago and those shorter work hours.
Posted by: mckinley

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 01/28/19 01:29 PM

I sort of agree with this prediction. I actually give it about 20 years. What inspired that thought was stories like this: Big Swing: Robot Sportswriter Outperforms Human. That's the kind of under-the-radar report that I've seen turn into disruption in the past. As much as I'd like it to be robots, the real disruption is a dozen programmers writing software that can do the job of thousands of people for a small annual subscription fee.

I think the safe jobs are going to be the one's requiring a broken thing to be fixed. We've had visions of robots replacing production lines for a long time, but an automated mechanic/plumber/electrician doesn't come up much. I don't think it's impossible, but it's probably a lower priority.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 02/02/19 09:09 AM

Recent WSJ article -

White-Collar Robots Are Coming for Jobs
A combination of AI and globalization could reshape the workforce like nothing we’ve seen before. Richard Baldwin, professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, explains.
By Richard Baldwin
The Wall Street Journal
January 31, 2019
Posted by: Wren

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 02/02/19 03:49 PM

I think it will be less than 10 years. Saw a speech by an AI expert at U of Toronto who said agi would be way off and 6 months later, a company announced that they were close and AGI would be within 5 years.

Besides the trades, there is also picking food. Even with AI in agriculture, someone has to pick the food.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 03/20/19 09:45 AM

Just a few links related to this topic...

Machine Learning, a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Interesting vocabulary and translation:
Originally Posted By: vocabulary equivalence (summarized in chart form)
common usage - - Statistics - - - - - - - -Machine Learning
target - - - - - - -- dependent variable - label
-- - - - - - - - - - - -variable - - - - - - - - -feature
-- - - - - - - - - - - -transformation - - - --feature creation
Read about Data Mining and its uses, including predicting outcomes/performance/achievement in Education.
To what degree might the current encouragement for ALL pupils to go on to college be driven by the desire to collect a more robust set of data on the population?

Example of a successful application:
data analytics, used for focused marketing (2012).
How many human jobs might these analytics have replaced?

Example of mixed application:
No pilot required (or maybe having a knowledgeable human pilot who can override the system, is still a good idea?)

Example of unsuccessful application:
What happens when human cannot override machine? (Tesla)

Example of use in medical diagnosis:
doctors who may rely on AI... could miss out on learning

Related Article on AI and Engineering:
a growing number of narrow AIs that exceed human abilities

Related depiction in entertainment:
Sci-fi movie WALL-E (2008) Rated G
Robots (such as WALL-E and EVE) work, most people have nothing to do and suffer greatly for it.

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) does not yet appear to be updated with information regarding the role of technology (AKA: Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, data analytics and other computer functions) in reducing jobs available for humans in the foreseeable future.

Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 05/22/19 07:29 AM

Self-driving trucks begin mail delivery test for U.S. Postal Service
Heather Somerville
Reuters
Business News
May 21, 2019 / 5:08 AM

Originally Posted By: article
San Diego-based startup TuSimple said its self-driving trucks will begin hauling mail between USPS facilities in Phoenix and Dallas to see how the nascent technology might improve delivery times and costs.
...
The pilot program involves five round trips, each totaling more than 2,100 miles (3,380 km) or around 45 hours of driving.


Here is a link to the San Diego-based startup TuSimple.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 04/10/21 02:43 PM

In this old thread, what does your child want to be when they grow up? (2015), it is interesting to see the jobs, careers, and pasttimes envisioned by the children who will be the future adults facing the tech-takeover of many functions.

In an article titled "The Case for Compassionate Meritocracy" (https://neuralnetworking.substack.com/p/the-case-for-compassionate-meritocracy), by Neural Networking, dated March 25, 2021, the author suggests that technology-driven GDP growth might fund future universal income rather than allowing the wealth to be retained by the few roboticists and AI researchers. Also note that "the text-generating GPT-3 neural network ... wrote parts of several paragraphs" of that article. Additional information on GPT-3 which may be of interest: https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/openai-gpt-3-text-generation-ai/
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 05/18/21 05:11 PM

This thread about technology replacing jobs, and specifically the post about self-driving trucks, came to mind when I saw this news story today:

Tesla driver ticketed for falling asleep while on autopilot at 82 mph
MSN news
May 18, 2021
Originally Posted By: article
A 911 caller reported the car would speed up when not around other cars and then slow down again as it approached traffic.
...
"If someone's not holding the steering wheel for 30 seconds it will automatically turn off autopilot..."

Tesla mandates that the operator keep their hands on the steering wheel at all times and always maintain control of the vehicle while utilizing the autopilot feature.

In this instance, automation may have saved lives.
And yet, the irony is, this person was commuting to their job as a driver for a delivery service!
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 04/19/22 10:44 AM

This article may be of interest:

Top 10 Jobs That Robotics And Automation Will Take Over In 2022
by Disha Sinha
Dec 13, 2021
Analytics Insight

Many of these may not be the dreamed-about career, but several in the service industry or in office work have historically been great high school and college employment, providing a broad array of opportunities to learn and practice a variety of employment skills.
1. Salesperson in Retail Stores
2. Receptionists
3. Delivery People
4. Bookkeeping Clerk
5. Customer Service Employee
6. Accountants
7. Proofreaders
8. War Soldiers
9. Bomb Squad
10. Typists
One position, accountant, has been a much sought-after opportunity for a variety of businesses.

Human proofreaders understand the crafting of a new portmanteau, or a punny turn of a phrase, which artificial intelligence (AI) may, unfortunately, "correct" causing work to lose originality and the authentic voice of the author. (How often we may experience auto-corrupt rather than auto-correct!)

I see the prognosticated takeover of these jobs by automation and robotics as a change in society, to an ever-increasing reliance on the grid, while decreasing self-reliance and the development of a number of skills in creative thinking, work-around alternatives and stop-gap measures, short-term and long-term thinking and planning, interpersonal communication, teamwork, flexibility and resilience.
Posted by: Eagle Mum

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 04/19/22 04:18 PM

I couldn’t agree more with your last post, Indigo.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 05/31/22 12:18 PM

Thanks, Eagle Mum!
smile
Evidently high-tech is not the only force competing to eliminate human jobs... there is a trend for low-tech goats to take on brush-clearing tasks, replacing landscapers and volunteers who previously did that work: https://pittsburghparks.org/gardening-goats-return-to-frick-park-to-munch-on-weeds/
shocked
All the more reason to educate children, including the gifted, in concepts such as:
- anticipating the potential for economic instability,
- weathering difficult times by utilizing skills in personal finance and budgeting,
- discerning between NEEDS and WANTS,
- anticipating the need for flexibility and resilience in career choices,
- understanding and following principles of health and safety including the roles of nutrition and exercise,
- embracing personal responsibility,
- providing leadership and role-modeling,
... and more.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/02/22 12:52 PM

With many employed in computer science, even more entertained by it, and increasing numbers being educated in it, the possible trajectory of Artificial Intelligence as shared in this book may both fascinate and frighten readers:
AI by Design, A Plan for Living with Artificial Intelligence
by Catriona Campbell
1st Edition, 2022

The Turing Test (1950), is mentioned in Campbell's book.
(Link to wikipedia article on Alan Turing's test - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test)

The Future of Life Institute (FLI), Cambridge Massachusetts, is mentioned in Campbell's book and may also be of interest.
(FLI link - https://futureoflife.org/, wikipedia link to article on FLI - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Life_Institute)

The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI), Oxford England, is also mentioned in Campbell's book and may be of interest.
(FHI link - https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/, wikipedia link to article on FHI - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute)

Evidently, technology may replace more than just jobs in the future.

Also mentioned in Campbell's book, according to a recent article published online by The Guardian, is the concept of artificial intelligence introducing virtual offspring:
Tamagotchi kids: could the future of parenthood be having virtual children in the metaverse?
The Guardian
May 31, 2022

Campbell's paperback book (ISBN 9781032196664) is available on Amazon.
(link - https://www.amazon.com/AI-Design-Artificial-Intelligence-Robotics/dp/1032196661)
Posted by: raphael

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/06/22 10:13 AM

I recently stumbled upon some interesting research that is being done on the future of work, and differences between "cognitive" and "physical" jobs. Haven't had the time to read it myself yet, unfortunately:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.07073.pdf

Another fascinating (to me!) topic of research is the topic of health extension.
Basically, pursuing efforts to eradicate diseases that are still plaguing us (such as cancer, Alzheimer...) might result in trying to reverse the process of aging, as a lot of diseases humans are dying from in developed countries actually are caused by aging.

Here a list of projects in that branch of research from The Foresight Institute:
https://foresight.org/biotech-health-extension-program/

Might seem offtopic, but it seems like a lot of people interested in building "something new" are working either on artificial intelligence or longevity research. In that sense, in a world increasingly driven by AI technologies, we will probably also see more and more attempts at somehow modifying? improving? human biology
Posted by: raphael

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/06/22 10:25 AM

Beyond the excellent advice listed by Indigo, I will throw the universal basic income (UBI) into the mix of solutions to future developments on the job market:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income

i.e. I also believe that politicians will need to propose solutions. Automation cannot be shouldered by individuals alone.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/06/22 12:15 PM

Originally Posted By: raphael
trying to reverse the process of aging, as a lot of diseases humans are dying from in developed countries actually are caused by aging.
Definitely of interest to the gifted, and to much of humanity... either because their local population lives to become elderly, or because they would like to remove causes of premature death and increase the lifespan of the local population (enabling more of them to become elderly).
Here's a link to an old thread - http://giftedissues.davidsongifted.org/BB/ubbthreads.php/topics/236651/Aging.html#Post236651

Originally Posted By: raphael
... in a world increasingly driven by AI technologies, we will probably also see more and more attempts at somehow modifying? improving? human biology
Ah, "transhumanism" ... ethical considerations abound.
Wikipedia link - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism

Applications of Artificial Intelligence are everywhere, both visible and undetected, with many PROs and CONs... including convenience, data collection, and transfer of decision-making power. Whether any particular attribute is seen as a PRO or CON may not be universal but may depend upon which side of the transaction one finds themselves on.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/15/22 06:10 AM

Some names to potentially watch in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) include:
- Margaret Mitchell
- Blake Lemoine
Posted by: raphael

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/17/22 10:52 AM

I am curious: do you have opinions on transhumanism? Arguably, for example, curing aging-related diseases is largely concordant with transhumanist ideas, if we happen to largely increase human longevity in the process.

cf "Transhumanism is a philosophical and intellectual movement which advocates for the enhancement of the human condition by developing and making widely available sophisticated technologies that can greatly enhance longevity [...]"

My naive way to think about this would be
"humans have always tried to cure diseases" -> "now we are trying to cure aging-related diseases" -> "in the process we realize that aging itself might be the root cause of those diseases" -> "let's look for ways to prevent aging from happening"

i.e. transhumanism might simply be a natural culmination of human efforts to improve their own condition.

Personally, that's why I see the necessity to start working on this topic from all required perspectives (philosophical/ethical considerations as well as technological developments). Because I believe that this will be happening no matter what.

cf also potential futures you mentioned in which parents might be facing the choice of having virtual children, offered the option of genetical engineering, etc...

PS: Margaret Mitchell seems to have a very interesting look on algorithmic bias! I will endeavour to catch up with her work
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/18/22 11:06 AM

Originally Posted By: raphael
... human efforts to improve their own condition...
I question the definition of "their own" in the quoted post, as it could be referring to:
- an individual's own condition on a personal level (self-determination)
- humanity at large, the human gene pool, all humanoids (experimentation).

One's view of the ethics may depend upon:
- which side of a transaction one finds themselves on... experimenter or experimentee (subject),
- whether one had freely entered into an agreement (informed consent) -OR- whether one was coerced, pressured, threatened, or an action was mandated.

It's been nearly 5 years since this article was written:
Transhumanism And The Future Of Humanity: 7 Ways The World Will Change By 2030
by Sarwant Singh
November 20, 2017
Forbes
Originally Posted By: article
... body augmentation capabilities will give rise to humans that are more resilient, optimized and continually monitored. They will also lead to implications around which job opportunities are available to those with and without augmented abilities, as well as impacting sports competition with hierarchies based on body augmentation.
(emphasis added)
Posted by: Eagle Mum

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/18/22 04:09 PM

@Indigo, I wish there were like/love buttons I could select for your last comment which is currently so very contemporaneously pertinent.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 06/19/22 05:52 AM

Thank you, Eagle Mum - I PM'd you.
Posted by: indigo

Re: Technology may replace 40% of jobs in 15 years - 07/03/22 04:09 PM

This was recently brought to my attention: AI augmenting waitstaff in restaurants. https://www.bearrobotics.ai/
Has anyone heard of Servi? Or seen Servi in a restaurant?

While waitstaff employment may not be a long-term goal, I've known many a gifted high school and college student to work in food service during summer break and holidays.