A paper
Changing College Choices with Personalized Admissions
Information at Scale: Evidence on Naviance Christine Mulhern
Harvard University
April 2019
Abstract
Choosing where to apply to college is a complex problem with long-term
consequences, but many students lack the guidance necessary to make
optimal choices. I show that a technology which provides low-cost
personalized college admissions information to over forty percent of
high schoolers significantly alters college choices. Students shift
applications and attendance to colleges for which they can observe
information on schoolmates’ admissions experiences. Responses are
largest when such information suggests a high admissions probability.
Disadvantaged students respond the most, and information on in-state
colleges increases their fouryear college attendance. Data features
and framing, however, deter students from selective colleges.
is discussed in a Wall Street Journal article
The Online Tool That Helps—and Hinders?—College Applicants Students who use Naviance are more likely to be accepted where they apply—but may be deterred from reaching for highly selective schools
By Jo Craven McGinty
May 3, 2019
...
students who were just below the average GPA of a highly selective college were 15% less likely to apply than students just above the average, even though they should have similar admissions probabilities.
The pattern suggests students may avoid applying to colleges if they fear they won’t get in. That might improve admissions outcomes, but it also may discourage students from applying to the best colleges they are qualified to attend.
Naviance points out that scattergrams are just one of the platform’s tools.
“Scattergrams are an important piece of the puzzle, but they’re just one data input,” said Kim Oppelt, director of research at Hobsons Inc., Naviance’s parent company. “We really have made a big effort to call out what’s most important” in profiles that outline affordability, graduation rates and other details for each college in Naviance’s catalog.
Still, Ms. Mulhern found that high-school students were 20% more likely to apply to schools whose admissions results were portrayed in scattergrams.
She examined the college choices of students in a mid-Atlantic school district with 10 to 15 high schools and approximately 4,000 graduates a year during the first three years the students could access Naviance. (Schools that have used the platform for longer will have more robust data.) The average student logged onto the platform 43 times during high school and 23 times in 12th grade alone.
Once students had access to the scattergrams, fewer applied to reach colleges and more attended safety schools—schools where they were likely to be admitted but also where their achievements exceeded the majority of other students who were accepted there.
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Naviance is a useful tool, but high school students should consider colleges that do not have Naviance data.
