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    aeh Online Content OP
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    This article is a bit lengthy, and a few years old, but I think it's an informative discussion on why scores change on repeated measurement, a topic which comes up with some regularity here. It includes data and commentary on test-retest reliability, correlations between tests, repeated measurement with same/different instruments, and regression to the mean, especially as they apply to gifted program selection policies.

    Dr. Lohman is the principal author of the Iowa Assessments (ITBS, CogAT), and consequently does have a personal interest, but is also extremely knowledgeable about assessment, and has access to one of the deepest data sets on cognition and academic achievement out there.

    https://faculty.education.uiowa.edu/docs/dlohman/Understanding_and_predicting_regression.pdf

    Last edited by aeh; 05/20/16 10:34 AM. Reason: better subject

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    As a layperson reading through that, I found it really informative, but also it makes me wonder. How do you use that info, that under 60% of top performers may still be in top 3% percentiles from year to year, with respect to grade acceleration? It just makes me see why schools are so hesitant to accelerate, if they are uncomfortable with such predictions. Especially if you're testing kids at grade-level instead of above-grade-level, so you're not comparing them to the correct set.

    And is there always regression to the mean downward? Or do you see children who score high on an IQ test at 7 score similar or higher at 9? It seems like the 95% confidence range would be better suited to a .8 prediction, if this data is accurate. I might be misunderstanding!

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    There is not always regression to the mean downward. Keep in mind that all these analyses are on group data. Any individual data point can move up or down, depending on the sources of error in the respective administrations. If you consider the discussion on error, you'll note that he mentions at least three different kinds of error, any of which could contribute to either underestimates or overestimates of "true" scores.

    Also, regression to the mean in the left hand tail means that extremely low scores tend to regress upward, toward the mean. Although apparently not quite as much as very high scores, if one consults the available research on that.


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    This was an informative read -- thanks for sharing!
    To be honest, the conclusions drawn in the paper coincide pretty strongly with what I see in my work. I have many, many children who come in with previous IQs at 130+, and are consequently in gifted education, but end up in the 100s to low 120s range. In fact, I had a case with this presentation just this week. The parents tend to blame anxiety, or something along those lines, for the drop, but given that I give multiple assessments of a similar kind every day, I have a pretty decent grasp on when a child's testing is an accurate representation of their abilities.
    I tend to chalk it up to two factors: 1) the school districts and even some of the psychologists in our state are generally pretty awful at administering highly standardized assessments...I recognize that there is an assumption that it's impossible to "fake good," but the tester can absolutely make that happen; 2) regression to the mean is, indeed, a reality. On the clinical side of things, unresolved language issues (expressive or receptive, but especially expressive) tend to coincide with a decrease in IQ scores over time.
    Of course, none of this makes telling the parents, or even the children depending on their age, any easier.
    As aeh said, the same can be true for the other end of curve, as well, especially because IQ is incredibly unstable at any early age, and there's several compounding factors involved (even a typical child with few behavioral issues is bound to get bored with the WPPSI at three or four). Obviously, in these situations, an increase can be a positive change to see.

    Last edited by Priiak; 05/20/16 11:43 PM.
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    With two children in a program that accepts only child with IQs 130+ (but allows outside test scores and accepts scores from children as young as 5), I feel like I see this in the children and now teens I know from the program. I know they all tested in, but some who once appeared higher-ability now appear "average bright." Others have remained obvious outliers, and some started as not that obvious and have become more so. I have to mention that as the years have passed, I have learned just how many kids in this program did not "pass" the school district IQ bar and were later admitted after their parents sought private testing (that they passed). It's a lot. I would say, over 50%.

    Personally, with my own children, I once though both of their tests were off in opposite directions and now think that both tests were actually accurate.


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