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    #157514 - 05/21/13 05:11 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: Wren]
    Bostonian Offline
    Member

    Registered: 02/14/10
    Posts: 2600
    Loc: MA
    Originally Posted By: Wren
    I agree with Bostonian. Although at the rate of tuition acceleration, I am estimating 150K per year in 8 years for an top college.

    That looks high. College costs have been rising faster than inflation by about 2 to 5% a year. Assuming a general inflation rate of 2% and college inflation rate of 7%, the $60K cost today would grow "only" to $60000 * (1.07^8) = $103,091 . A college inflation rate of 5% (slightly higher than recent college inflation) results in a future annual cost of $88,647. Here is some data from the College Board.

    http://advocacy.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/college-pricing-2012-full-report_0.pdf

    Trends in College Pricing, 2012

    PUBLISHED TUITION AND FEE AND
    ROOM AND BOARD CHARGES
    Average published tuition and fees for in‑state
    students at public four‑year colleges and
    universities increased from $8,256 in 2011‑12
    to $8,655 in 2012‑13. The 4.8% ($399) increase
    in tuition and fees was accompanied by a
    $325 (3.7%) increase in room and board charges
    for students living on campus. At $9,205, room
    and board charges account for more than half of
    the total charges for these students.
    • Average published tuition and fees for out-of-state students at
    public four-year institutions rose by $883 (4.2%), from $20,823 in
    2011-12 to $21,706 in 2012-13. Average total charges are $30,911.
    • Average published tuition and fees at private nonprofit
    four-year institutions rose by $1,173 (4.2%), from $27,883 to
    $29,056 in 2012-13. Average total charges are $39,518.
    • Average published tuition and fees at public two-year colleges
    increased by $172 (5.8%), from $2,959 in 2011-12 to $3,131 in
    2012-13.
    • Estimated average tuition and fees for full-time students in the
    for-profit sector increased by about $435 (3.0%), from $14,737
    in 2011-12 to $15,172 in 2012-13.
    • Published prices at public four-year institutions rose more
    rapidly between 2002-03 and 2012-13 than over either of
    the two preceding decades, but the average annual rate
    of increase in inflation-adjusted tuition and fees at private
    nonprofit four-year institutions declined from 4.6% from
    1982-83 to 1992-93, to 3.0% from 1992-93 to 2002-03, and
    to 2.4% over the most recent decade

    Top
    #157519 - 05/21/13 05:41 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: deacongirl]
    Bostonian Offline
    Member

    Registered: 02/14/10
    Posts: 2600
    Loc: MA
    My wife and I do have Tiger Parent tendencies, but this article shows that there are other routes to success:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/techno...-start-ups.html
    Before Tumblr, Founder Made Mom Proud. He Quit School.
    By JENNA WORTHAM and NICK BILTON
    New York Times
    May 20, 2013

    Quote:
    When David Karp was 14, he was clearly a bright teenager. Quiet, somewhat reclusive, bored with his classes at the Bronx High School of Science. He spent most of his free time in his bedroom, glued to his computer.

    But instead of trying to pry him away from his machine or coaxing him outside to get some fresh air, his mother, Barbara Ackerman, had another solution: she suggested that he drop out of high school to be home-schooled.

    “I saw him at school all day and absorbed all night into his computer,” said Ms. Ackerman, reached by phone Monday afternoon. “It became very clear that David needed the space to live his passion. Which was computers. All things computers.”

    Clearly.

    Now 26 years old, Mr. Karp never finished high school or enrolled in college. Instead, he played a significant role in several technology start-ups before founding Tumblr, the popular blogging service that agreed to be sold to Yahoo for $1.1 billion this week. With an expected $250 million from the deal, Mr. Karp joins a tiny circle of 20-something entrepreneurs, hoodie-wearing characters like Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg and Foursquare’s Dennis Crowley, who have struck it rich before turning 30.

    On average, of course, high school dropouts are less successful than high school graduates, who are less successful than college graduates. How much freedom to give to teenagers is an interesting question.
    _________________________
    "To see what is in front of one's nose needs a constant struggle." - George Orwell

    Top
    #157521 - 05/21/13 05:53 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: deacongirl]
    ultramarina Offline
    Member

    Registered: 08/24/10
    Posts: 3428
    Quote:
    I am totally recommending an engineering degree for DD. I don't care what she ends up doing. You can use that degree for anything.


    Anything? How much time do you spend honing your writing skills when you get an engineering degree? (I don't actually know this. I'm just guessing that it isn't that much time.)


    Top
    #157524 - 05/21/13 06:01 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: Bostonian]
    Dude Offline
    Member

    Registered: 10/04/11
    Posts: 2856
    Originally Posted By: Bostonian
    Originally Posted By: Wren
    I agree with Bostonian. Although at the rate of tuition acceleration, I am estimating 150K per year in 8 years for an top college.

    That looks high. College costs have been rising faster than inflation by about 2 to 5% a year. Assuming a general inflation rate of 2% and college inflation rate of 7%, the $60K cost today would grow "only" to $60000 * (1.07^8) = $103,091 . A college inflation rate of 5% (slightly higher than recent college inflation) results in a future annual cost of $88,647. Here is some data from the College Board.


    And these figures assume that current trends continue... which, clearly, they cannot. The market is already pushing back.

    Colleges got into an arms race with each other, based on more buildings and expensive amenities, fueled by expanding debt, which could only be repaid by the constant expansion of the student body, and its willingness to take on increasing debt that cannot be discharged. Obviously, both of these forces would have to reach a limit. The business model was unsustainable.

    The important thing, though, is that the school presidents all enjoy seven-figure salaries and generous severance packages as they're driving their institutions over the fiscal cliff.

    Top
    #157526 - 05/21/13 06:06 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: ultramarina]
    JonLaw Offline
    Member

    Registered: 07/29/11
    Posts: 2007
    Loc: The Sub-Tropics
    Originally Posted By: ultramarina
    Quote:
    I am totally recommending an engineering degree for DD. I don't care what she ends up doing. You can use that degree for anything.


    Anything? How much time do you spend honing your writing skills when you get an engineering degree? (I don't actually know this. I'm just guessing that it isn't that much time.)


    I used my engineering degree to get into law school.

    And I really dislike writing.

    Top
    #157527 - 05/21/13 06:10 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: Dude]
    JonLaw Offline
    Member

    Registered: 07/29/11
    Posts: 2007
    Loc: The Sub-Tropics
    Originally Posted By: Dude
    Colleges got into an arms race with each other, based on more buildings and expensive amenities, fueled by expanding debt, which could only be repaid by the constant expansion of the student body, and its willingness to take on increasing debt that cannot be discharged. Obviously, both of these forces would have to reach a limit. The business model was unsustainable.


    I will note that the demand for debt from consumers is basically infinite.

    The problem is that only *some* people will be willing to take on an infinite amount of debt.

    For example, one of my law school roommates, who, between two years of Harvard grad school and three years of Duke law school, managed to actually max out the amount of money that he was allowed to borrow.

    He would have kept borrowing more, but he hit the ceiling.

    So, part of the issue is that the amount is capped.

    Top
    #157528 - 05/21/13 06:14 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: ultramarina]
    Dude Offline
    Member

    Registered: 10/04/11
    Posts: 2856
    Originally Posted By: ultramarina
    Anything? How much time do you spend honing your writing skills when you get an engineering degree? (I don't actually know this. I'm just guessing that it isn't that much time.)


    If the email skills of some of my peers are anything to go by... none whatsoever.

    Top
    #157529 - 05/21/13 06:22 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: JonLaw]
    Dude Offline
    Member

    Registered: 10/04/11
    Posts: 2856
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: Dude
    Colleges got into an arms race with each other, based on more buildings and expensive amenities, fueled by expanding debt, which could only be repaid by the constant expansion of the student body, and its willingness to take on increasing debt that cannot be discharged. Obviously, both of these forces would have to reach a limit. The business model was unsustainable.


    I will note that the demand for debt from consumers is basically infinite.

    The problem is that only *some* people will be willing to take on an infinite amount of debt.

    For example, one of my law school roommates, who, between two years of Harvard grad school and three years of Duke law school, managed to actually max out the amount of money that he was allowed to borrow.

    He would have kept borrowing more, but he hit the ceiling.

    So, part of the issue is that the amount is capped.


    There's always a cap, because at some point the lender loses confidence in the borrower to repay, and if the lender doesn't lose confidence quickly enough, default. It would be somewhat difficult to keep up with the interest payments on $infinity, nevermind pay down the principle.

    Otherwise, you can't expand the student body AND increase their debt load, because those two forces work against each other.

    Top
    #157530 - 05/21/13 06:27 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: Dude]
    JonLaw Offline
    Member

    Registered: 07/29/11
    Posts: 2007
    Loc: The Sub-Tropics
    Originally Posted By: Dude
    There's always a cap, because at some point the lender loses confidence in the borrower to repay, and if the lender doesn't lose confidence quickly enough, default. It would be somewhat difficult to keep up with the interest payments on $infinity, nevermind pay down the principle.


    This is the United States federal government we are talking about.

    An entity that issues as much debt as it wants to and poofs billions of dollars into existence on a regular basis.

    I know because I watch them poof the money into existence and then I watch the stock market go parabolic.

    I also watch money being poofed into existence and funneled into my office on a regular basis because I sign the poofed checks.


    Edited by JonLaw (05/21/13 06:29 AM)

    Top
    #157532 - 05/21/13 06:36 AM Re: more on "Tiger Mom"... [Re: JonLaw]
    Dude Offline
    Member

    Registered: 10/04/11
    Posts: 2856
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: Dude
    There's always a cap, because at some point the lender loses confidence in the borrower to repay, and if the lender doesn't lose confidence quickly enough, default. It would be somewhat difficult to keep up with the interest payments on $infinity, nevermind pay down the principle.


    This is the United States federal government we are talking about.

    An entity that issues as much debt as it wants to and poofs billions of dollars into existence on a regular basis.

    I know because I watch them poof the money into existence and then I watch the stock market go parabolic.

    I also watch money being poofed into existence and funneled into my office on a regular basis because I sign the poofed checks.


    Key word being "as much as it wants." It's being run by a body so committed to limiting debt that it passed its own debt cap on itself, enforced by automatic spending cuts so dramatic it would NEVER ACTUALLY allow them to actually happen, cross their hearts. Because that worked out so well for Dr. Strangelove.

    Also, nobody beats them in an arms race.

    Top
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