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    #154081 - 04/21/13 01:42 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: SiaSL]
    puffin Offline
    Member

    Registered: 12/11/12
    Posts: 2035
    Originally Posted By: SiaSL
    Not the OP, but Google gives me The Everything Parent's Guide to Raising a Gifted Child by Sarah Robbins for the first quote (p125) and Giftedness 101 by Linda Silverman (p87) for the second.

    Amusingly enough links to the page with quoted materials in Google Books came as #2 results for both searches. The #1 result points to this thread. I have no idea what the DA uses for SEO but Google just laps it up...


    Our library just got the everything parent book - unimpressed I must admit and not just with that quote.

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    #154090 - 04/21/13 06:59 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: aquinas]
    JonLaw Offline
    Member

    Registered: 07/29/11
    Posts: 2007
    Loc: The Sub-Tropics
    Originally Posted By: aquinas
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: aquinas
    Also, with securities markets best modelled as a random walk plus drift, I don't know that stock portfolio performance is really indicative of anything at all to do with intelligence. It's a random variable, per JonLaw's results.


    The lesson I learned was "don't short the market during a major QE session."

    So, it was pretty non-random.

    [img]http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415e.jpg[/img]


    An important lesson. But, then, QE was an unprecedented response to a black swan event.


    They weren't reacting to a "black swan" event.

    In fact, the collapse of the credit/housing bubble was as far from a "black swan" event as you can get.

    When you stuff a financial system chock full of credit that has no business existing in the first place, what you get is what happened.

    I mean the dot-com bust just happened. It wasn't like everyone hadn't just lived through a boom and bust.

    It was a standard-issue mania, panic, and crash. Classic "white swan".

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    #154095 - 04/21/13 10:28 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: JonLaw]
    aquinas Offline
    Member

    Registered: 11/02/12
    Posts: 2480
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: aquinas
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: aquinas
    Also, with securities markets best modelled as a random walk plus drift, I don't know that stock portfolio performance is really indicative of anything at all to do with intelligence. It's a random variable, per JonLaw's results.


    The lesson I learned was "don't short the market during a major QE session."

    So, it was pretty non-random.

    [img]http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130415e.jpg[/img]


    An important lesson. But, then, QE was an unprecedented response to a black swan event.


    They weren't reacting to a "black swan" event.

    In fact, the collapse of the credit/housing bubble was as far from a "black swan" event as you can get.

    When you stuff a financial system chock full of credit that has no business existing in the first place, what you get is what happened.

    I mean the dot-com bust just happened. It wasn't like everyone hadn't just lived through a boom and bust.

    It was a standard-issue mania, panic, and crash. Classic "white swan".

    I'm going to say yes and no.

    You don't get any disagreement from me about over-extension of credit being obviously problematic. When price is so radically disconnected from fundamentals, it's only a matter of time until a correction occurs. So yes, that's as plain vanilla as theory goes.

    But where I would argue a black swan occurred was in the speed of transmission of losses due to an unprecedented, and largely misunderstood, interconnectedness of assets across classes and geographies. While I'll concede that it was actually an endogenous shock, I'd suggest that it still qualifies as a black swan due to the disconnect between expectations and reality on the propagation of the collapse. That was truly unforeseen.

    Either way, we're taking this thread pretty far afield. smile
    _________________________
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    #154099 - 04/21/13 10:54 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: kmbunday]
    HowlerKarma Offline
    Member

    Registered: 02/05/11
    Posts: 5181
    Oh, I dunno.

    Seems like the entire premise has circled around the basic disconnect between the numbers (shell) game and, well, reality as most of us know it.

    I see the two things as parts of a larger whole, but maybe that is just me.

    Dude's commentary re: hedge fund management seems quite a striking example of the phenomenon, actually, as does Jon's assertion of credit extension not reflective of reality.

    Bubbles result from this kind of disconnect. That's my hypothesis, anyway. Well, probably not "mine" in any sense that is novel-- pretty sure that people with more expertise than I have also feel that way.


    The implications for the original topic of the thread are interesting in light of that, though. Must ponder.
    _________________________
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    #154121 - 04/21/13 06:35 PM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: HowlerKarma]
    JonLaw Offline
    Member

    Registered: 07/29/11
    Posts: 2007
    Loc: The Sub-Tropics
    Originally Posted By: HowlerKarma
    Seems like the entire premise has circled around the basic disconnect between the numbers (shell) game and, well, reality as most of us know it.

    I see the two things as parts of a larger whole, but maybe that is just me.

    Dude's commentary re: hedge fund management seems quite a striking example of the phenomenon, actually, as does Jon's assertion of credit extension not reflective of reality.

    Bubbles result from this kind of disconnect. That's my hypothesis, anyway. Well, probably not "mine" in any sense that is novel-- pretty sure that people with more expertise than I have also feel that way.


    The implications for the original topic of the thread are interesting in light of that, though. Must ponder.


    Much of the problem in modern education is quantifying something that doesn't lend itself well to being addressed in that way in the first place.


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    #154163 - 04/22/13 07:58 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: JonLaw]
    Dude Offline
    Member

    Registered: 10/04/11
    Posts: 2856
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Much of the problem in modern education is quantifying something that doesn't lend itself well to being addressed in that way in the first place.


    Indeed... take in economics. Markets are influenced by mass psychology. A price is an opinion. Yet all these "smart" economists are designing quantum mathematical models to predict their behaviors as if they obeyed rational laws.

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    #154209 - 04/22/13 11:34 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: kmbunday]
    aquinas Offline
    Member

    Registered: 11/02/12
    Posts: 2480
    Originally Posted By: Dude
    A price is an opinion.


    I like this take.

    The problem in markets is that opinions can be rational to the individual with distorted expectations but irrational on an objective basis with full information. But, macro tools based on micro foundations are still predicated on a "representative household". So it's a challenge of aggregating up and adjusting for heterogeneity of expectations and individual characteristics. Human behaviour is hairy...it makes theoretical math and the natural sciences look so elegant by contrast!
    _________________________
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    #154211 - 04/22/13 11:35 AM Re: Innumeracy in Gifted Education Advocacy [Re: JonLaw]
    aquinas Offline
    Member

    Registered: 11/02/12
    Posts: 2480
    Originally Posted By: JonLaw
    Originally Posted By: HowlerKarma
    Seems like the entire premise has circled around the basic disconnect between the numbers (shell) game and, well, reality as most of us know it.

    I see the two things as parts of a larger whole, but maybe that is just me.

    Dude's commentary re: hedge fund management seems quite a striking example of the phenomenon, actually, as does Jon's assertion of credit extension not reflective of reality.

    Bubbles result from this kind of disconnect. That's my hypothesis, anyway. Well, probably not "mine" in any sense that is novel-- pretty sure that people with more expertise than I have also feel that way.


    The implications for the original topic of the thread are interesting in light of that, though. Must ponder.


    Much of the problem in modern education is quantifying something that doesn't lend itself well to being addressed in that way in the first place.



    ITA. Must...publish...something..."original".

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