http://www.popecenter.org/commentaries/article.html?id=2701
The Myth of STEM Labor Shortages
By Jay Schalin
Pope Center for Higher Education Policy
May 31, 2012

Everybody knows that the best way to get ahead today is to get a college degree. Even better is to major in one of the STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) subjects, where the bulk of the jobs of the present and future lie. Politicians, business leaders, and academics all herald the high demand for scientists and engineers.

But they are, for the most part, wrong. The real facts suggest that, in many STEM specialties, there is a labor glut, not a shortage.

That is not to say that the STEM subjects aren’t worthy of study—there are many reasons to do so. And if a talented young person really wants a job in a STEM field, he or she can eventually get one, with a little perseverance.

But there is no urgent need for STEM graduates, at least not in a general sense.

The roots of STEM labor gluts go back over half a century, according to Michael Teitelbaum, a demographer at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and a leading authority on this topic. Sputnik, the 1957 Soviet missile launch, created a national concern that we were falling behind in the race for technical superiority. Talk of labor shortages in science and engineering arose, and talk led to action. Beryl Lieff Benderly, a journalist who writes about employment for scientists for Science magazine and other publications, described the result of the national response to Sputnik: “Federal money swiftly poured into science and engineering scholarships and so successfully attracted students that, by the early 1970s, the market for young scientists was flooded.”

The flood grew in the 1980s, after the National Science Foundation (NSF) warned of imminent shortages of scientists. Eventually, the NSF’s predictions turned out to be so off-base that the agency was subjected to an investigation by a House subcommittee in 1995, during which NSF director Neal Lane flatly stated, “there really was no basis to predict a shortage,” according to Teitelbaum and Benderly. (Lane was not involved with the NSF at the time of shortage prediction).

More recently, a PhD. in electrical engineering who follows labor trends in his specialty, Dan Donahoe, wrote for the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE) magazine that there has been a “myth of a qualified labor shortage” in his field for a long time. He says that the myth started in the late 1980s, and that the myth continues despite expansion and contraction of the labor market.

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There is demand for certain subsets of STEM majors, for example petroleum engineers, as the article mentions, and one should look at starting salaries to identify those majors. But the notion of a general STEM shortage is a myth.

I think they should just say there is a TE shortage.. technology and engineering. I am constantly getting calls from recruiting companies asking if I know any other engineers that work in the same field that are looking for work.. the answer is always 'no'.

I caught part of an interesting NPR piece today that made a point I think is related, though not purely to STEM jobs. unemployment/shortage of skilled labor paradox

One point that was made, which I think should be more widely considered, is that the labor shortage is in part the fault of HR departments, and in particular, software that screens job applicants.

But there definitely seems, to me, to also be a glut of PhDs in some fields.

I can't remember a time when people with PhDs in biology (my field) weren't complaining about how hard it is to get a permanent position. Everybody gets postdoc positions that are on soft money.

If you look at the data and apply faulty logic, then you come up with faulty conclusions.

For example:



Just because an American IT professional lost his job at a dot-com doesn't mean he's a candidate for a job at Microsoft. Nearly 2/3rds of all websites are built on a variant of Unix.

http://w3techs.com/technologies/overview/operating_system/all

This is like saying there can't be a shortage of cardiac surgeons, because there have been major job losses among pediatricians.



Sorry, this is just absurd. Since when does a college student have their finger on the pulse of their chosen industry? They're KIDS. They have no practical experience to draw on, so all they can go on is hearsay and media reports. What was the media saying about the IT job market from 2001-2005?

If students had access to hard info about their chosen professional job market, things like this wouldn't happen: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44393771/ns/us_news-life/t/culinary-school-grads-claim-they-were-ripped/



ROFL. What's even funnier is that if you click on the author's name, you'll find that he was briefly a software engineer at CSC.

Here are just a few fast-evolving technologies that will require lots of software development:

- Tablets/smart phones - this is a relatively new technology that is still evolving from a hardware perspective, which naturally leads to ongoing software changes. As these are now in the hands of nearly everyone, new ways to exploit them are coming about.

- Web services - A major change to how large enterprises integrate disparate systems, evolving since approx. 2001, but change comes slowly in the enterprise arena.

- Remember all those really cool sci-fi movies where the computer is operated by hand gestures? The device is nearly here, and the driver is open source, so all it needs is exploitation: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57437404-76/leap-motion-3d-hands-free-motion-control-unbound/

Dude has pretty much said it all. I am too busy to comment as I have to hire five more people this week for IT jobs.

That's been true in bio for a long time, it was definitely the case in mid-80's at least. But, the practice of long & multiple post-doc positions has also become common in STEM fields where it was rarely seen before.

I certainly wasn't really worried about getting a job in chemical engineering when I graduated.

And I know of no engineer who is worried about their job, friends or family.

Everything seems fine in STEM world, from what I've seen and heard.

Even a guy I know from college who keeps ending up in the psych ward is having no problem finding new IT jobs when he gets released.

I agree that the job market for the "T" in STEM is good, but that is distinct from the academic job market for PhDs in the natural sciences, as others have noted.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303360504577408431211035166.html
Revenge of the Nerds: Tech Firms Scour College Campuses for Talent
Wall Street Journal
May 31, 2012, 2:21 p.m. ET

...

The technology boom has created an acute shortage of engineers and software developers. The industry has responded by taking a page from the playbook of professional sports: identify up and comers early, then roll out the red carpet to lock them up.

With the social media frenzy in full swing, promising students are now wrestling with decisions about whether to stay in school or turn pro. Meanwhile, those who stay on campus are enjoying a bonanza of free food and other goodies as companies rush to win their hearts and minds.

...

Starting salaries at leading companies for average computer science grads from top schools range from $75,000 to $100,000, plus signing and relocation bonuses worth $5,000 to $15,000, according to venture capitalists and recruiters. New hires may also get small equity grants, with stars getting additional cash bonuses or larger grants worth as much as 1% of the company.

...

Obviously your local market plays into it, too. I too live in "hurricane alley," and my employer is having a devil of a time filling certain positions. I was surprised about how quickly I was hired, until I found out the position had been open for more than a year before I'd made myself available for it.

We recently went through a major corporate event that transformed the IT workforce (some new positions, some drastically changed positions, some eliminated positions, etc.). I don't have personal knowledge of any of my colleagues who moved out of the organization (willingly or otherwise) who didn't land on their feet immediately with a new employer.

Oh, and as a footnote to my previous post, I failed to mention information security, because each time some new technology or service is tied to public networks, that's a new threat vector.