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* ...high-quality college leads to higher graduation rates and income.
* These gains from college quality also appear to have risen over time.
Correlation does not indicate causation.
Unfortunately the choice to use certain words and phrases tends to conflate correlation with causation.
While high-quality college may be correlated with higher student graduation rates and income, it may be false to conclude that it is the cause of higher graduation rates and income: High student quality, as indicated by selectivity, may be as much of a factor as high college quality.
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* These rising gains may be due to a growing learning ability gap between students attending low-quality schools and those at high-quality schools.
BINGO!
There used to be a saying in IT / data processing: Garbage In, Garbage Out! (GIGO)