"Any differences due to genetics should be consistent."

Oh, definitely not. Height differences between men and women are consistent in that they exist in all cultures, but in some cultures men and women have greater height differences than in others. It depends on how they are nourished as children and other genetic factors such as when they hit puberty.

I personally don't believe it's possible to test this hypothesis scientifically at this time. I think we have to move forward with the assumption that girls can do it, because it hurts nobody, and see how it works out. The only alternative is to effectively give up on girls, "You didn't catch up fast enough!", and stop providing them with the support they need to overcome implicit bias, minority status, and so on.